It’s that time of year again–the obligatory year-end wrap up post. I figure I’d do some bullet points about stuff that happened that may or may not have been foretold by this here blog…along with some other random musings.
Canaries in the Coal Mine
Two new consoles were launched this year–one handheld and the other is the first traditional console release since the mobile disruption. Fortunes are looking bleak for both. The Vita had 3 quarters of dismal sales figures leaving Sony with junk bond status and totally mystified as to why nobody is supporting the last dinosaur at a mammal convention. Nintendo has been spinning the Wii U launch figures, but it’s too early to tell.
Social Gambling Supernovas
Social games such as FarmVille and its ilk are frequently criticized as nothing more than compulsion-driven skinner boxes. So, it’s no surprise that in an increasingly desperate quest for hockey sticks, 2012 was the year all subtlety was dropped and social gaming companies built straight up slot machines for mobile and social platforms…as previously predicted by this blog.
Social gambling ARPUs are through the roof, but investors are still waiting for the legal structure to change for real-money-gambling to thrive online. Zynga has been loudly proclaiming their interest in the sector since before their disastrous IPO–perhaps because they realize they are far better at optimizing pure compulsion loops than building fun-based games.
By the end of 2012 famous game developers and studios successfully used Kickstarter to fund large independent projects. Sparked by Double Fine’s wildly popular campaign, the frenzy hit its peak with Chris Roberts’ $6.2 million haul for Star Citizen. Some of this may be due to a crowdfunding bubble that may burst when high profile games show up late, or not at all.
The real story here is that investors have largely abandoned the game sector as ZNGA’s IPO left a blast crater that scattered the herd…as previously predicted by this blog. For many, crowdfunding is the only remaining source of financing. What are you going to do–go back to a publisher?
Next year will be fascinating as we watch Sony and/or Microsoft (and perhaps others) defend against disruption with the introduction of new consoles. Disruption is a force of nature. Fighting it is like fighting earthquakes.
Oh and while we’re at it…